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Jason Pawlak

Me and my Internet

Husband, Dad, Navy Officer, Coder, and Tinkerer. I have many interests and am always looking to learn something new. This site is a launching point to the many areas of the Internet that represent me.

No Consequence Predictions

I think everyone in Cincinnati, Ohio should prepare themselves for disaster.  I predict that tomorrow, February 9th, 2009, an asteroid may come blazing from the heavens and plant itself right on Fountain Square.

You have been warned.

Nonsense, yeah?  I hate how people of influence, mainly political, make no consequence predictions.  This is a prediction where if you are wrong, so what?

Let’s take for example a few days ago when our just recent Vice-President, Dick Cheney told the world that there is a “high probability” that terrorists will attempt a catastrophic nuclear or biological attack in coming years (link).  This is the perfect example of a ‘no consequence prediction’.  If in the next few years, an attack lands on the United States causing terrible disaster to everyone, and the recovery is not picture perfect, Cheney will be right there to say: “You remember back on February 5th of 2009 when I warned about this?”

Now if in the next few years nothing happens, we all live happily day to day worrying about nothing more than what flavor of Icees to eat, we will have forgotten about Cheney’s warning.  No one will speak up a few years down the road and say “Cheney was wrong!”  This is because no one will care.

The only negative affect on Cheney is that if he wants to make another large-scale prediction, it may not be taken to be as credible.  But for Cheney, if there is a nuclear/biological terrorist attack in the ‘upcoming years’, which I think is a fairly safe prediction for most any person right now, he gets celebrated for his insight.

I get the feeling this occurs a lot in Washington.  Especially during the elections.  People will make some random comment in an interview, and then years down the road it will be pulled up and used to show the insight that individual had so many years ago.

So here is what I say (and you can quote me on it):

Tomorrow, an asteroid might hit Cincinnati, Ohio.

If I am right, I get the biggest, “I told you so” EVER!  If not, I’ll just continue making my predictions.

… stupid politics

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